October 21, 2009
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Richard Green on how banks are responding to government pressure to scale back repossessions of troubled properties. "I don't think people are saying it to each other, but they're seeing it's in nobody's interest to have mass foreclosures," said Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
October 17, 2009
The Orange County Register ran a Q&A with Stan Ross of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate on the commercial development industry, which has suffered from defaults and bankruptcies. "The commercial sector has not yet fully seen the impact of illiquidity in the capital markets. As a result, we haven't seen the full magnitude of defaults or foreclosures yet in the marketplace," Ross said. "Some of these institutions that were holding or buying these securities will run into some serious problems with respect to liquidity and capital requirements. They will either have to be restructured, taken over or look for new equity capital to continue on. The impact on the economy could be a further loss of some institutions and a continued slowdown of new development."
October 17, 2009
The Bakersfield Californian quoted Richard Green of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate in an article about first-time homebuyers. Green said that banks don't have the staffing capacity to move a lot of inventory through the foreclosure process quickly, particularly when properties are owned by investors with competing liens. He added: "Appraisers are scared to death of getting sued if a home turns out to be worth less than they said, so they're being extremely conservative."
October 15, 2009
The New York Times cited SPPD Professor Richard Green about U.S. foreclosure filings, which climbed to a record high in the third quarter as lenders seized more properties from delinquent borrowers. "The problem is prime loans going into foreclosure and people being underwater and losing their jobs," Green said in a Bloomberg News story. "It's a really bad number." Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
October 14, 2009
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Richard Green about the Southern California housing market, which last month in some areas showed an increase in median home sale prices for the first time since 2007. "I think prices are fundamentally at a bottom," said Green, who the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. "There could be some weakness in the next year that brings things back down a little bit. I wouldn't be jumping for joy yet, but these numbers are not bad."
October 7, 2009
The Ventura County Star quoted Professor Richard Green in a story about experts predicting a gain in the California housing market in 2010. Green, who directs the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, said he is 70 percent sure the housing market is at the bottom and is expecting the market to move along with relatively little change in sales and median price for a couple of years. The positives should outweigh the negatives next year, but "I don't expect to see a boom any time soon," he said.
October 3, 2009
The Pasadena Star-News quoted Professor Dowell Myers about new data suggesting that Asian Americans have been hit hard by the housing crisis. Asian homeownership dropped 1.24 percentage points to 59.4 percent last year, the largest fall in homeownership among the nation's ethnicities, the story reported. About one-third of the U.S. Asian population lives in California, which could explain the homeownership drop, Myers said. "Asians are newer into the housing market. They increased [in homeownership] more from 2000 to 2008 than most other groups," Myers said. As newer buyers, they would have been more impacted by the housing crisis than more established homeowners were, he explained.
October 3, 2009
The Orange County Register quoted SPPD Distinguished Fellow Stan Ross about Mammoth Equities LLC, which is seeking bankruptcy protection because it can't repay $68 million in construction loans coming due this year. Ross gave context to the story, explaining that in addition to bank financing, $200 million of commercial mortgage-backed bonds are coming due by the end of 2009, followed by $275 million going into 2010. "Since there's no liquidity in the market, there is no known direct source of replacing those commercial mortgage-backed bonds," he said. Ross is chairman of the board for the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
September 30, 2009
La Opinion quoted Professor Richard Green and cited research by Professor Dowell Myers in a story about Proposition 13, which limits property tax rates. Most economists and experts agree that property tax is a less regressive option compared with sales tax, said Green, who is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. Myers, who has studied the subject, said that Proposition 13 needs reform because new generations will buy homes at higher prices and pay more taxes than previous generations. Young people will subsidize those who paid less for older homes, he explained.
September 28, 2009
The Riverside Press-Enterprise featured a report by Professor Dowell Myers on Proposition 13, which limits property tax rates for existing homeowners. Myers wrote that Proposition 13 has typically worked against newer homeowners, who have had to pay thousands of dollars a year more in property taxes than neighbors who have owned similar homes for several decades. Myers added that the pain is worst for the two million Californians who bought houses during the price bubble between 2003 and 2007, then saw the price of their property tumble by about 40 percent.
September 26, 2009
The Orange County Register quoted SPPD Associate Professor Christian Redfearn about the economic factors that are keeping the real estate market bottom at bay. "[There] is the sharp distinction between activity at the low and high ends of the market. At the low end, financing is available. For example, I heard from a developer in Beaumont that he'd had a successful sale of new homes, but that all of the buyers were FHA borrowers. There are no parallel programs for jumbo mortgages on higher end homes," Redfearn said.
September 19, 2009
Pasadena Star-News reported that Professor Dowell Myers was one of the speakers at a discussion on housing and density on Pasadena. The story stated that Myers, a leading expert on the economic impact of baby boomers, discussed boomer house-buying habits during the housing boom and bust. Myers provided statistics showing that the next peak in home buying should occur among the generation that is currently 18 years old.
September 19, 2009
The Orange County Register ran a Q&A with SPPD Professor Richard Green on how the aging of housing in the Los Angeles area impacts the housing market. "Some of the areas with this [older] housing have already been redeveloped, but a drive immediately west of USC and east of downtown reveals lots of redevelopment opportunities," Green said. "If governments are serious about Transit Oriented development, we will see denser redevelopment along the Gold Line that is about to open, and the Exposition Line that is scheduled to open next year." Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
September 16, 2009
Los Angeles Downtown News featured the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate's launch of its new blog, which will focus on trends in finance, urban planning and policies shaping residential and commercial real estate markets worldwide. The center "is responding to a need from real estate decision makers who increasingly turn to social media sites to help them track rapid swings in the global property markets," said Richard Green, director and chair of the Lusk Center.
September 14, 2009
The Wall Street Journal cited an op-ed that Professor Richard Green wrote on the new Lusk Center blog. In a post on the economic obsolescence of large homes, Green wrote that falling incomes could push large-home values below the original construction cost of these homes. With fewer people able to afford larger homes, demand for them may be disappearing or undergoing economic depreciation, he explained. Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
September 14, 2009
Bloomberg News quoted SPPD Professor Richard Green about home foreclosures. While loan revamps may prevent some foreclosures, many homeowners facing repossession have prime loans, mortgages considered less risky than subprime loans, and can't make their payments because of job losses, Green said. "When people live in a housing market that's dropped 30 or 40 percent, and they lose their jobs, that's a recipe for default," he added.
September 11, 2009
MarketWatch quoted Professor Richard Green about the tax credit for first-time home buyers, which will expire at the end of November. "In terms of how effective it is, I don't think it does any harm at this point," said Green, noting that the number of first-time home buyers is limited. "It's pushing sales forward that would have happened anyway. You're giving money to people who were going to buy anyway."
September 11, 2009
MarketWatch quoted SPPD Professor Richard Green about the tax credit for first-time home buyers, which will expire at the end of November. "In terms of how effective it is, I don't think it does any harm at this point," said Green, noting that the number of first-time home buyers is limited. "It's pushing sales forward that would have happened anyway. You're giving money to people who were going to buy anyway." Green is director and chair for the USC Lusk Center of Real Estate.
September 10, 2009
The Wall Street Journal featured research by SPPD Professor Dowell Myers. The study found that California's falling home prices have widened the generational wealth gap created by the state's Proposition 13, which limited property tax rates. According to the research, people who recently bought homes have suffered the greatest loss of housing value but are getting the least tax relief. The study concluded that if the price of California property stays depressed for a while, the most recent buyers will suffer the most.
September 2, 2009
American Public Media's "Marketplace" interviewed Professor Richard Green about a company that is changing the way real estate agents operate by providing services via the Internet. "Having a model where people examine what's on the market online, and narrow for themselves what they want, it's just not that big a deal," Green said. "You really don't need somebody to drive you around to look for houses that are going to fit your needs." Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
August 21, 2009
CBS Evening News interviewed USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development Professor Richard Green about recent gains in existing home sales. Nationwide, home sales jumped seven percent, marking the fourth consecutive month that sales increased, the story noted. "I wouldn't be standing up and cheering yet. But things are better than they were six months ago. There's no question about that," he said. Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
August 12, 2009
Minnesota Public Radio's "Midmorning" interviewed Professor Richard Green about changing attitudes toward homeownership amid the recession. "I think if you look 10 years ago or so, people did not particularly look at their house as a way to get rich. They looked at it as a place to live," Green said. "My guess is we're going to reset back to where we were sometime before the late 1990s." At the moment prices have come down so much and interest rates are so low that it's a good time to buy, he added. Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
August 6, 2009
USA Today quoted Professor Dowell Myers of the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development about falling rates of homeownership. "We're returning more to what was normal in the 1960s," Myers said. "People didn't buy homes then as an investment. They bought them to raise families."
August 3, 2009
In his new role as assistant secretary for policy development and research at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, USC's Raphael Bostic will face a huge task: helping policymakers come up with ways to bring stability back to the nation's housing market. Bostic, a professor at the School of Policy, Planning, and Development, was sworn into his new government position on July 16.
July 30, 2009
The Huffington Post quoted Professor Dowell Myers about demographic changes in the housing market. Myers has pointed to a huge sea change in the ratio of buyers and sellers that will put downward pressure on housing values over the next two decades, the story stated. "The baby boom generation has pushed up housing prices over the past three decades, as they steadily moved up the ladder and bought housing," he said. "So people think the last three decades are normal. But at some point boomers will start to cash out."
July 28, 2009
Bloomberg News quoted Professor Richard Green about recent positive housing market numbers. "June is a month that requires a seasonal adjustment," Green said. "You have to be a little bit careful about what the June numbers alone mean. If we see this kind of thing for another four months, perhaps we know we might have something." Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
July 24, 2009
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Richard Green about a theory that lenders are controlling the rate of foreclosures to avoid further overwhelming the market. "That would require a cleverness among lenders we're not seeing in any other dimension," Green said. "If they could coordinate on that they could coordinate better on loan modifications." Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
July 21, 2009
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Richard Green about the failed Newhall Ranch development, a poor investment choice which cost the California Public Employees' Retirement System almost $1 billion. "I would have said that Newhall Ranch was going to be a winner," Green said. "If I thought that at the time, criticizing others for doing the same would be unfair."
July 16, 2009
Bloomberg News quoted Professor Richard Green about U.S. foreclosure filings reaching a record 1.5 million. "People are losing their jobs, seeing their income go down and are underwater on their mortgage," Green said. "It's a toxic combination." Green was also cited by the Washington Independent. Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
July 9, 2009
SmartMoney quoted Associate Professor Gary Painter in a story on lowering one's property tax amid the recession. If your assessment is based on a higher valuation from several years ago - for example, before 2005, the height of the real estate boom - it may be a good time to get it reassessed, Painter advised. Painter is director of research at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
July 7, 2009
KPCC-FM's "Patt Morrison" interviewed Professor Richard Green about a possible upcoming wave of foreclosures. Many lenders temporarily stopped foreclosure proceedings, and the moratorium for many homeowners is about to expire, Green said. "[Y]ou have people who are under water on their mortgage, combined with a bad jobs picture. It's a really toxic combination," he added. Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center of Real Estate.
June 27, 2009
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Richard Green about the possibility of debt forgiveness for homeowners whose properties are underwater. Green favors debt-for-equity swaps, in which mortgages are refinanced to turn a percentage of the homeowner's loan in to an equity stake for the lender. The need for such strategies is chronic, particularly in places like Riverside County, he said. Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
June 25, 2009
BusinessWeek quoted SPPD Professor Richard Green in a widely carried story about bank stocks. Even properties on which borrowers made 30 percent down payments are underwater where property values are down 33 percent to 40 percent, Green noted. "On one hand, regional banks don't want to foreclose and have the property on their balance sheet. On the other hand, everyone's capital-constrained, so they don't want these loans they were planning to be rid of to hang around on their balance sheet because then they can't make new loans." Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
June 24, 2009
Richard DeBeikes Jr., president of the diversified real estate corporation DeBeikes Investment Co., has been elected to a five-year term on the USC Board of Trustees. DeBeikes, a 1978 graduate of the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development, is also outgoing president of the USC Alumni Association Board of Governors, having served for 2008-09.
June 14, 2009
BusinessWeek quoted Professor Richard Green about the impact of rising home prices on homeowners. If prices were to go up everywhere, it wouldn't help the homeowner, since he or she couldn't afford to buy a new home in the same market, Green explained. "The only way you can benefit is if you sold a house in California in 2006 and moved to Alabama." Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
June 12, 2009
The Wisconsin State Journal featured the keynote speech by Professor Richard Green at the conference "Housing Outlook 2010: Continued Crisis or Recovery?" "Finding the bottom is really key to getting out of this mess and I do think we're close," Green said. "The long-term outlook for housing is very positive." Green is Director and Chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
June 11, 2009
The Capital Times reported that Professor Richard Green will be keynote speaker at "Housing Outlook 2010: Continued Crisis or Recovery?", a conference at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Green is Director and Chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
June 8, 2009
The Cleveland Plain Dealer noted that SPPD Professors Richard Green and Raphael Bostic will speak at a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Community Development Summit titled "Credit, Capital, and Community Building in Transitional Times." Green is Director and Chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
June 5, 2009
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Richard Green about current property values. "If you get away from the coasts, houses are cheap," Green said. In inland areas, some houses are selling for less than construction costs, he noted. Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
June 5, 2009
The Los Angeles Downtown News quoted SPPD Distinguished Fellow Stan Ross about a proposed condo tower in L.A.'s downtown. Depending on how quickly the project moves forward, the developer may have to provide a large portion of the project's construction budget up front, Ross said. Due to the current frozen credit market, the developers are unlikely to get traditional financing, he added. Ross is chairman of the board for the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
May 20, 2009
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Richard Green about many homeowners keeping their properties in the hopes that prices will eventually rise. "Until those people are forced to sell, they're not going to," Green said. "That might change if lots of high-income people lose their jobs," he added. Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
May 9, 2009
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Harry Pachon about the American dream among Latinos. "It's the dream of having a single-family house and a white picket fence and a dog," Pachon said. Pachon is president of the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute at USC, the story noted.
May 8, 2009
KPCC-FM's "AirTalk" interviewed Professor Richard Green about the relationship between real estate brokers and appraisers. "One of the things that let us down the road that we went down was the relationship between the brokers and the appraisers," said Green, who directs the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. "The brokers had every incentive to get the loan done, not to make sure the loan performed properly, because they were compensated based on originations, not on loan performance; so the last thing they wanted is an appraiser to get in the way of the deal."
April 16, 2009
The Economist quoted Professor Richard Green in a story on reconsidering the benefits of homeownership. "Perhaps the most compelling argument for housing as a means of wealth accumulation is that it gives households a default mechanism for savings," said Green, director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. Because people have to pay off a mortgage, they increase their home equity and save more than they otherwise would," he explained.
April 15, 2009
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Richard Green about the merger of homebuilder giants Pulte Homes and Centex. "What this says is that companies are desperate to cut overhead right now," Green said. "I see this as a good, cost-saving move for both companies."
April 9, 2009
Xinhua News Agency (China) featured the latest USC Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast, which was released by the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. The report found that rent prices fell across much of Southern California. "The dramatic changes in the economy are taking their toll on landlords, who are lowering rents or giving concessions just to keep their units occupied," said Delores Conway of the Lusk Center, who directs the forecast.
April 8, 2009
American Public Media's "Marketplace" interviewed Associate Professor Gary Painter about Pulte Homes buying rival homebuilder Centex. One advantage of the merger is that by cutting costs, it will facilitate building up cash reserves, the story noted. "Because there's not the same sort of credit available that there obviously used to be, it'll put them in a position to acquire inventory of land for the long term," Painter explained. And acquiring land in the right places will make all the difference, he said.
March 23, 2009
CNBC quoted Professor Richard Green about a resurgence in conservative lending practices. Lenders have returned to the "gold standard" of requiring 20 percent down for loans not insured by the Federal Housing Administration, Green said. "We are seeing some lenders asking for 25 percent down," he added. "It used to be, if you had a [credit] score of 680 or above you were considered very good quality credit, and you'd get the best pricing," Green added. But as lenders have gotten more careful, the bar for that top tier is higher. "Now you'll pay 1 percent more than someone with a 760."
March 23, 2009
The Los Angeles Times reported that Raphael Bostic has been tapped by President Barack Obama to be assistant secretary for policy development and research in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Bostic has served as a professor at the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development and as director of the master of real estate development degree program, the story noted. He is an expert on housing, mortgage markets, discrimination, market forecasting, urban economics and real estate regulations. "We are pleased that the administration has reached out to tap a member of our highly respected real estate and urban economics faculty and delighted to tell you that Dr. Bostic has assured us of his return to campus following his two-year post at HUD," a USC statement noted.
March 14, 2009
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Richard Green about President Barack Obama's proposal to reduce the mortgage interest tax deduction for those earning more than $250,000. The plan may well be "sort of the nose under the tent on the way to getting rid of the mortgage interest deduction entirely," Green said.
March 13, 2009
The Wall Street Journal quoted Professor Raphael Bostic about how the redevelopment of downtown Los Angeles is faring in the current economy. While troubles facing downtown may reflect economic headwinds that have battered real estate nationally, some experts believe that downtown has also suffered from too many high-priced developments, the story stated. "The price points that were projected aren't sustainable," Bostic said. "The prices you have to charge now make the returns relatively unattractive."
February 25, 2009
The Los Angeles Times ran the second and third parts of the "Dust-Up" debate featuring SPPD Professor Richard Green. "A cram-down is a court-ordered reduction of the secured balance due on a home mortgage loan," Green wrote in the first story. "Basically, it reduces lenders' collateral to the current value of the house, which is determined with an appraisal. That said, I worry about the impact of cram-downs on the ability of borrowers to get mortgages going forward." In the second Los Angeles Times story, Green recommended a plan to reduce the principal owed in home loans. "I think policymakers are worried that writing down principal will give borrowers something for nothing. But the same is true for reducing payments via a subsidized interest rate," he wrote. "We could help deal with the fairness problem by having a claw-back provision for borrowers whose loans are modified."
February 24, 2009
The Los Angeles Times ran an op-ed by Professor Richard Green as part of a "Dust-Up" debate series on President Obama's mortgage plan. "I would like to see an additional feature in the Obama plan: a claw-back provision for those who get a direct mortgage subsidy from the government and then later sell at a profit," Green wrote. "If we taxpayers are going to help people remain in their houses, we should get the equivalent of partial-ownership interests in the houses we subsidize."
February 20, 2009
Fox News interviewed Professor Richard Green about homeowners who are frustrated that the government is bailing out people who took risks and not helping those who were responsible. Such frustration is justified, but the economic risk of letting millions of homeowners default on their mortgages leaves the government with little choice, Green said. "A year ago I would have been appalled at this plan," Green said. "Now I think we have to do something like this. The moral hazard argument is valid, but is trumped by the macroeconomic situation." Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
February 19, 2009
The Oregonian quoted Professor Richard Green about President Barack Obama's mortgage restructuring initiative. "It's a clever plan," Green said. "It might actually help the housing market bottom," he added. Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
February 16, 2009
Los Angeles Downtown News cited the USC Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast. Downtown L.A. occupancy rates have fallen from 96 percent to 85 percent, according to the forecast.
February 12, 2009
USA Today quoted Professor Dowell Myers on the domestic housing slump. A record one in nine housing units is vacant, the newspaper reported. Myers said the problem goes beyond the construction frenzy that peaked in 2005. "This is a different problem," says Myers, housing demographer at the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development. "It's high now because of lack of demand. Now, vacancies we see are from units that have been empty for a period of time."
February 6, 2009
U.S. News & World Report quoted Professor Richard Green about tips for potential homebuyers. People should consider purchasing a home as a place to live in rather than as an investment, Green advised. "If you're not planning on living in that house for more than three to five years, I wouldn't buy anything right now," he said. Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
February 4, 2009
Faculty and students at the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development took part in a leadership training conference to help local government officials find solutions for public problems afflicting cities nationwide.
February 2, 2009
Los Angeles Downtown News quoted Associate Professor Gary Painter about a reported ownership change in a real estate development project. "My guess is they tried to rework their loan, but they just weren't able to get an agreement on that," Painter said. "This is happening in a lot of places right now, and not just in Los Angeles," he added. Painter is director of research at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
February 2, 2009
Los Angeles Downtown News cited the USC Casden Real Estate Forecast, issued by the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. The apartment occupancy rate in downtown Los Angeles currently stands at 85 percent, according to the forecast.
January 27, 2009
The Wall Street Journal quoted Professor Richard Green about disincentives for first-time homeowners. Rising unemployment and announcements of huge job cuts have sapped consumer confidence nationwide, discouraging some potential buyers from making a move, the story stated. "People rightly feel less secure in their future income," Green said. The housing market won't recover until the unemployment rate stops rising, he added.
January 26, 2009
The USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development marked its 80th anniversary by hosting a special colloquium Jan. 16 at the Davidson Conference Center. During the conference, Dean Jack H. Knott noted that SPPD remains dedicated to advancing academic theory and making a vital impact in the world.
January 23, 2009
BusinessWeek quoted Professor Richard Green about possible "cramdowns," whereby the government forces lenders to modify the terms of home loans. A year ago, allowing loan modifications would have raised objections, since it would let many homeowners to escape their contractual obligations, the story stated. But the urgency of the real estate crisis has changed many people's thinking, while others "have made the judgment that the moral hazard ship sailed a long time ago," Green said. "Things have reached such crisis proportions, we have to put such niceties aside and get ourselves through this," he added. Green said that the only cure is a mass-modification program, which is what the government used in the Great Depression.
January 20, 2009
Portfolio quoted Professor Richard Green about the silver linings of the credit crunch and housing slowdown. Until frozen markets thaw, banks won't able to fund as many projects, but that might be a good thing, the story stated. "A slowdown is creating more time to plan and tempered expectations," Green said. "Projects that do get funding will be sound, which will ultimately be good for an ailing industry."
January 20, 2009
The Orange County Register featured the latest forecast by the USC Lusk Center For Real Estate. The forecast stated that the commercial market won't grow for two years, according to the story. "[A] lack of liquidity remains the major obstacle to a recovery in the commercial real estate markets at least until the end of this year," said Stan Ross, chairman of the Lusk Center. Now would be a good time for developers in a strong financial position to buy up such building materials as wood, steel and concrete to take advantage of falling prices, said Richard Green, the Lusk Center's director.
January 18, 2009
The San Diego Union-Tribune quoted SPPD Distinguished Fellow Stan Ross about hotel real estate. "With hospitality you have lower occupancy and competition," Ross said. "Look at what you can get a room for in Vegas." Ross is chairman of the board at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
January 14, 2009
The San Diego Union-Tribune quoted Professor Raphael Bostic about the need to stem home foreclosures. "Without doing more to control the wave of foreclosures, we could have a continuous flow of distressed mortgages, which would create problems for the economy as a whole," Bostic warned.
January 12, 2009
Los Angeles Downtown News quoted Associate Professor Gary Painter about a Los Angeles developer who has decided, due to the weak economy, to auction off the units in a condo building. "In normal market circumstances you typically don't see auctions," he said. "But with what's happened in the last year and a half, it's anything but normal." Painter is director of research at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
December 24, 2008
U.S. News & World Report quoted Professor Richard Green featuring advice for prospective homebuyers. "If you're not planning on living in that house for more than three to five years, I wouldn't buy anything right now," Green said. "Nobody knows what is going to happen to prices over the next few years." Green is director and chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
December 22, 2008
The California Real Estate Journal quoted SPPD Distinguished Fellow Stan Ross about the housing market in California over the last 20 years. Regional malls got larger and office buildings got taller, Ross said. And a whole lot of space got built, but this peaked in about 1988 and 1989, he added. "Then we moved into soft years and we had excess supply coming out, so we had a substantial amount of excess space," he explained. Ross is chairman of the board at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
December 11, 2008
The Los Angeles Business Journal featured the latest forecast from the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. Office and industrial properties across the Southland will continue to feel the effects of business closures and slower global trade well into 2009, the report found.
December 8, 2008
The California Real Estate Journal quoted Associate Professor Gary Painter about a new report warning of a $2.5 trillion risk to real estate posed by global warming. Rising losses from damage and destruction of buildings and land presumably will lead to higher insurance premiums, the story stated. "What's clearly going to happen is, as various places in California experience greater risk over time, you'd expect that to be reflected in higher prices," Painter said.
December 2, 2008
The Wall Street Journal highlighted Professor Dowell Myers in a story on the future of American real estate. Myers' research has indicated that the retirement of baby boomers over the next two decades is likely to depress house prices in many areas, the story stated. "It's going to really mess up the housing market," Myers said. This "generational correction" will be larger and longer-lasting than the current slump, Myers has predicted. In some areas, younger people will be happy to buy boomers' homes as they retire and move elsewhere. The problem will be in places where lots of older people are selling and few young people are settling down, Myers said. The effects will be strongest in the "coldest, most congested and most expensive states rather than the high-growth states of the South or West," he noted.
November 30, 2008
The Los Angeles Times quoted Assistant Professor Lisa Schweitzer about the light rail extension set to join Union Station with East Los Angeles. Rail lines mean access, which is valuable, Schweitzer said. Rail means a bump in property values, with land around the line becoming "perpetually valuable," she added.
November 18, 2008
Public Radio International's "The Takeaway" interviewed Professor Richard Green about whether the housing market is bottoming out. "I was feeling better about getting close to a bottom before September 15, because we saw prices fall so much in so many parts of the country that owning was starting to seem like a reasonably good deal relative to renting," Green said. "But with the lack of confidence due to the financial crisis, I don't think we're close to a bottom, though I did think so six weeks ago." On September 15, credit markets fell as the failure of Lehman Brothers spread throughout the market, making it more difficult for people to get mortgages, he noted. "But the other thing is that as this crisis of confidence has worsened, people are not willing to make the long-term commitment to buying a house."
November 12, 2008
Time quoted Professor Richard Green about the new plan by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to reduce mortgage payments for some homeowners who can't currently meet their monthly payments. The new program doesn't forgive principal, only defers it, which may not go very far at a time when some 18 percent of mortgage holders owe more to the bank than their house is worth, the story stated. "If all they're doing is lengthening the loan maturity, it may reduce the economic stress a little bit, but it doesn't deal with the main problem, which is you have an underwater loan," Green said.
November 8, 2008
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Richard Green about the fall in pending home sales in Southern California. "It's harder to get financing now than it was a year ago," said Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. "You need a 20% down payment. A year ago, it was less than 5%." Potential homebuyers are also less willing to buy now because of high unemployment rates, Green added. "With people losing their jobs and seeing their neighbors losing their jobs, they're not going to want to make the commitment of buying a house," he explained.
November 13, 2008
The Los Angeles Times quoted SPPD Associate Professor Gary Painter about financial problems facing CalPERS, California's largest public pension fund, which is losing value due to its housing investment portfolio. "It's certainly frightening for those who look forward to getting their pensions from the California system," said Painter, director of research at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
November 5, 2008
The Wall Street Journal quoted SPPD Professor Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, about research suggesting that homeowners tend to continue paying down their mortgages despite falling home values, provided they can afford their payments. Homeowners in California were more likely than expected to keep paying during the deep 1990s slump, Green said.
November 4, 2008
BusinessWeek quoted Professor Raphael Bostic about what would happen if the federal government renegotiated troubled mortgages. Such a move would help put a floor under housing prices, Bostic said. "Everyone is trying to figure out where the bottom is," he explained. "People are not going think there's a bottom if they know there's a flood of distressed assets still coming up for sale." Bostic is director of the master of real estate development program at SPPD.
October 31, 2008
The Los Angeles Times cited a USC Lusk Center for Real Estate study in an op-ed. According to the study, conducted in collaboration with UCLA, the slide in home values is likely to significantly constrict spending by consumers, making it harder for the economy to rebound. "We have shown that consumers react more radically to changes in their housing wealth than to changes in the size of their bank accounts," the study's authors wrote. The Orange County Register also covered the research.
October 29, 2008
During an Oct. 21 panel hosted by the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development, Los Angeles City Councilwoman Jan Perry said that the goal of downtown's revitalization effort is to restore "the excitement of an earlier time." The changing downtown landscape was the focus of the panel discussion, which took place inside City Hall. The event was part of the SPPD Dean's Speaker Series.
October 29, 2008
Bloomberg News featured a new study by SPPD Professors Gary Painter and Raphael Bostic, along with Stuart Gabriel of the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate. The economists found that lunging home prices will cut economic growth in the U.S. more than the drop in stock prices this year. A 10 percent decline in housing wealth results in a $105 billion - or 1.2 percent - reduction in personal spending, according to the three-year study. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of GDP, so that drop would result in a reduction in real GDP growth of 1 percentage point, the study found. "The reason, I believe, the effects are smaller for financial wealth than for housing wealth is that people tend to view those changes in housing wealth as more permanent," Painter said. "Consumption will be impacted by the decline in housing wealth for a while," he added. The study is scheduled to be published next year in the journal, Regional Science and Urban Economics.
October 21, 2008
SPPD Professor Dowell Myers was quoted in a Wall Street Journal news story about the role that retiring baby boomers are playing in the housing market downturn. "The generational crash is when there are too many older homeowners and not enough buyers," Myers said.
October 17, 2008
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Richard Green about an increase in Southland office space vacancies. Landlords will keep their asking rents up as long as they can, while offering other incentives such as reduced parking prices and generous allowances to help tenants build out their office interiors, Green said. It's only when those types of inducements are no longer sufficient that property owners tend to lower rents, he added.
October 16, 2008
The Los Angeles Times quoted Professor Raphael Bostic about price trends in the housing market. Additional notices of default and foreclosure are expected in 2009, when a new wave of adjustable mortgages will reset, the story noted. That will continue to push down the median prices of homes statewide, possibly into 2010, Bostic said. "Prices could inch up month over month next year, but a lot of moving parts have to align in the economy for that to happen," he explained.
October 15, 2008
The Wall Street Journal quoted Professor Richard Green about how government intervention in the housing and financial markets will affect homeowners. Green said that over time, the government's rescue effort could make it easier for borrowers in high-cost markets such as California, New York and Boston to get a mortgage, by reducing rates for jumbo loans, those too big for government backing. The government needs to push mortgage companies to take advantage of the Hope for Homeowners program, which aims to put borrowers into affordable loans, but requires that they share any resulting price appreciation with the federal government, Green added. The program "pretty much gets the incentives right," he said.
October 14, 2008
A panel of preeminent financial experts, including USC faculty, weighed in with their insights on how Wall Street plunged into a tailspin -- and also how to remedy the ailing markets. "Multi-party greed" drove the downturn, says Raphael Bostic, professor at the USC School of Policy, Planning and Development.
October 8, 2008
Professor Richard Green was quoted in the Press-Enterprise about how the Fed's most recent interest rate cut will affect mortgage lending. It's unlikely that the cut will stimulate the economy, because banks will not respond by increasing their lending in the current climate, Green said. "They are more afraid of losing money than of not making money," he explained. Green is director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
October 7, 2008
SPPD Distinguished Fellow Stan Ross was quoted in The Wall Street Journal about the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s, during which the federal government's Resolution Trust Corp (RTC) sold off distressed properties at rock-bottom prices. The move has been blamed for further depressing home values, as entire communities were turned over to absentee landlords, the story stated. However, places like Moreno Valley in Riverside County were already suffering from substantially reduced values when the RTC took control, said Ross, chairman of the board of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. "It's so easy to blame the government in these situations," he added.
October 2, 2008
Professor Raphael Bostic was quoted in a Ventura County Star article about how the financial crisis impacts the average person. The credit crunch is affecting people's ability to get loans for homes, the story noted. "You have to be more than prime these days -- you have to be pristine," Bostic said.
October 1, 2008
Mortgage Banking magazine featured an article written by SPPD Professor Richard Green on how the American mortgage finance system has progressed from the days of the Great Depression to where it is today. Green is chair of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
September 24, 2008
An Orange County Register article featured a talk by Professor Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, held at a real estate law firm. Prospects for housing market recovery have improved recently, Green said. Factors that bode well for the market include a declining inventory of homes for sale, conditions that favor buying over renting, and the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the article stated. Green also spoke about studies comparing the advantages and disadvantages of home ownership in general. While homeownership inhibits mobility, which can affect the labor market, studies show that children of homeowners tend to do better than those of renters, he said.
September 18, 2008
Professor Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, was quoted in Forbesabout the types of houses one can buy these days with $1 million. In many U.S. cities, inflated real estate prices can hold firm or slide only slightly in the city center, even as they collapse in the surrounding areas, Green said. "In the inland areas of Los Angeles, you can get a 4,000-square-foot house -- a huge house," he noted. But in popular Santa Monica or Marina Del Rey, "You'll get a shack."
September 8, 2008
Professor Raphael Bostic was interviewed by KFI-AM about the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac takeover. The federal government stepping in will mean more stability in the market and probably a drop in interest rates for some home loans, according to the story. "For California, it will be a good thing," said Bostic, director of the Master of Real Estate Development program at SPPD. "[W]ith the recent increase in the loan limit for Fannie and Freddie, a lot of homeowners will have access to those cheaper mortgages."
September 6, 2008
Professor Richard Green was quoted in the Los Angeles Times about record-setting home foreclosure rates in the United States. To make things worse, the U.S. jobless rate jumped in August to a nearly five-year high, the story stated. "It's really the very last thing the housing market needs right now - unemployment going up and we're heading into a recession," Green said. Job losses in construction and lending in the hard-hit Inland Empire are spreading to manufacturing, he noted. "And that causes a spillover effect," Green said. "If manufacturers are laying off people this month, retailers are likely to be laying off people next month." Green is director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, the story noted.
August 26, 2008
Associate Professor Gary Painter was quoted in the Ventura County Star about the housing market in Southern California. While a significant percentage of the homes sold are foreclosures, last month's uptick in sales is "encouraging nonetheless," Painter said. However, prices probably won't be heading up until 2010, he predicted. "It's still a transition time," Painter explained.
August 22, 2008
Professor Raphael Bostic was quoted in the North County Times about increasing home sales in some areas. Broader economic problems beyond the sub-prime mortgage crisis could still bring bad news, the story noted. "This pickup in sales is an indication that we're getting to a regular market," said Bostic, director of the Master of Real Estate Development program at SPPD. "But it doesn't mean that we're not going to see more of the distress that we have already seen."
August 16, 2008
Professor Richard Green was featured in a Q&A article in the Orange County Register on the housing slump. "My general view is that places close to employment centers will recover more rapidly than places that are further away, in large part because of gasoline prices," he said. "I think the speed and magnitude surprised almost all of us who follow housing markets," he said of the housing crisis. Green is director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
July 29, 2008
In a Los Angeles Times story, Prof. Gary Painter was quoted about the penalty for delays with Los Angeles' Grand Avenue project. The board overseeing the project approved a measure stipulating that if the project is delayed beyond February, the developer will be fined $250,000 a month. Financial penalties like this can sometimes help get projects moving, Painter said. He added that $250,000 per month seemed not a large sum of money relative to the scale of the project.
July 17, 2008
Prof. Gary Painter was quoted in a Ventura County Star story about the impact of credit turmoil on the housing market. "It's definitely a time of turbulence right now, that's for sure," Painter said. "There's no sign of a quick turnaround." Painter is director of research at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, the article noted.
June 27, 2008
A story in the San Francisco Chronicle featured housing market analysis by experts from the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. "We don't have a lot further to go [down in price]," Conway said, predicting a leveling off in the next year or two. Of the major California cities, San Francisco and San Jose are in the best shape, with home prices flattening, instead of plunging like those in Southern California and inland, said Raphael Bostic, director of the USC Master's of Real Estate Development program. "We have been through periods of profound turbulence in our financial markets, only to see things respond more rapidly than anyone had predicted," said Richard Green, who directs the Lusk Center. Conway directs USC's Casden Real Estate Economic Forecast, the article noted.
June 21, 2008
Raphael Bostic of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate was cited in a New York Times story about the rental market. In Los Angeles, the housing market slump has begun to push up vacancies as condominiums are converted into rentals, he said. Bostic is associate director of the Lusk Center, the article noted.
June 9, 2008
An editorial in the Los Angeles Downtown News cited USC's Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast. The apartment market in downtown Los Angeles has been one of the tightest in the region, with occupancy in 2006 close to 98 percent, according to the forecast.
May 20, 2008
Prof. Gary Painter was quoted in the Ventura County Star about whether recent statistics indicate a recovery in the housing market. "It's premature to say whether the market is at a turning point," Painter said. "It's very easy, when you're in a market like this one, to have little blips here and there," he explained. Painter is director of research at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, the story noted.
May 8, 2008
Prof. Raphael Bostic was interviewed on CNBC about rising oil prices and the housing market. Expensive fuel will negatively impact the housing market since it is linked, especially psychologically, to consumer spending and people's feelings about the economy, Bostic said. "We know that consumer spending is an important part of the economy, and it provides a benchmark for what people will decide to do in terms of major purchases," he explained. In the long term, increasing fuel costs might affect development patterns, he added. "I think [high prices is] why we're seeing a lot more interest on the part of developers to create urban central core type developments."
April 3, 2008
Professor Raphael Bostic was interviewed on NPR's "News & Notes" about rising home foreclosures. The foreclosures may be due in part to Americans' view of home ownership, the story noted. "We haven't sent the message that homeownership really isn't a right, it is a privilege, and it comes with cost obligations and burdens," Bostic said. "And collectively, our society has not placed homeownership in a position such that people who are chasing homeownership actually understand that there are potential consequences." Foreclosure rates are concentrated in the African American community, he added. "Some research that I've done would suggest that even after you control for credit quality and all those sorts of issues, foreclosure is much more prevalent in a lower income minority communities," he explained. Bostic is director of the Master of Real Estate Development Program at SPPD.
March 24, 2008
Prof. Raphael Bostic was interviewed on NBC Nightly News about the condominium market. Wider problems in the housing market have forced many new developments to halt construction or go on the auction block, the story reported. "The difficult part is that real estate is cyclical," said Bostic, associate director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. "For most of these cities, unfortunately, their condo product came online at a time when the housing market really was weak, and condos have been really ground zero for that weakness," he explained.
March 13, 2008
Prof. Gary Painter was recently quoted in BusinessWeek about the mortgage industry. There's a need for better regulatory oversight of the information flows about mortgages, both to those investing in mortgage-backed securities and to home buyers getting the loans, Painter said. Mortgage lenders on the whole would benefit because investors would know what they are buying, which would make for a healthier industry in the long run, he added. Painter is the director of research at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, the story noted.
Raphael Bostic, a professor at the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development, and Elizabeth Garrett, USC's vice president for academic planning and budget and a professor at the USC Gould School of Law, have been asked to join President Obama's administration in Washington, D.C.